Morning Preview: October 15, 2026

Early Look

Thursday, October 15, 2026

Another day, another sharp pullback in the tech sector overnight, especially in the AI/semiconductor sector most sensitive to higher borrowing costs. Ironically, the rout overnight comes as Treasury yields plunge, with the 10-year yield falling 11 bps to 5.08%, while the 30-yr bps -10 bps to 5.43% and the shorter term 2-yr yield, which jumped yesterday post CPI data, is down 7 bps to 4.73%. Even oil prices are pulling back this morning, but providing little easing of concerns in the tech sector thus far

Hotter-than-expected inflation data sent the Nasdaq to a sharply lower close on Wednesday (ahead of PPI inflation data today), with worries about more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve pummeling shares of Oracle, CoreWeave and other AI stocks sensitive to higher borrowing costs. Increased bets that the Fed will need more rate hikes to tame inflation dealt a sharp blow to some of the market’s biggest gainers of 2026 with AI infrastructure stocks getting hit hard (NBIS, CRWV, ORCL, DELL, VRT, AMD, IREN, etc.) Wednesday’s rout is the latest sign of a market struggling to come to grips with the implications of high inflation at a time when AI-fueled corporate borrowing has helped push up global interest rates. All three major US stock indexes closed lower on the day, with a 4.3% slide in chips (SOX) dragging the Nasdaq down 1.9%, the tech-loaded index’s biggest one-day drop since July 23^rd.

Concern over rising borrowing costs weighed on Wednesday’s for the tech sector and is carrying over to today, overshadowing strong results/guidance from Taiwan Semi (TSM). Selling has been particularly intense in CoreWeave, which has issued $22 billion of bonds and $26 billion of loans. A CoreWeave bond that was issued in June yielding 9.625% recently yielded 15%. Credit default swap spreads for Oracle (ORCL) widened 26 basis points to a record 288 bps, while SoftBank rose 24 bps to 424 bps, Reuters reported. CoreWeave (CRWV) spreads climbed above 1,000 bps, highlighting investor concerns about whether heavy AI infrastructure spending will generate sufficient returns to support rising debt obligations.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled 3,318 points or 4.9% to settle at 64,425, the Shanghai Index fell -59 points to 3,707, the Hang Seng Index dropped -251 points to 24,062 and the Korean Kospi sunk 76 points or 8.13% to finish at 860 as the semiconductor/tech sector rout continued. Sk Hynix shares plunge 10% amid Asia tech rout as Fed rate hike fears, Ai funding worries mount. In Europe, the German DAX is down -115 points to 25,183, while the FTSE 100 rises 50 points to 10,778. The US dollar pulls back further off 18-month high reached earlier this week, giving gold/silver a little selling reprieve.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -48.62 points, or 0.09%, to 51,621.48
• The Nasdaq Composite tanked -511.51 points, or 1.88%, to 26,692.87
• The Russell 2000 Index tumbled -53.84 points, or 1.93% to 2,729.53

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.17M (prior 1.716M)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Empire Manufacturing for October…est. 10.25 (prior 7.6)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Philly Fed Business Index for October…est. 28.4 (prior 37.8)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) headline M/M for September…est. +0.5% (prior +0.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) headline Y/Y for September…est. +5.3% (prior +5.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core: Ex: Food & Energy M/M for September…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core: Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for September…est. +4.4% (prior +4.6%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales M/M for September…est. +0.3% (prior +1.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales – Less Autos for September…est. +0.5% (prior +1.4%)
• 10:00 AM ET                Business Inventories M/M for August…est. 0.4%
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 12:00 PM ET EIA Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AA IBKR INDB JBHT SFNC WAFD WSE

• Japan’s industrial output fell 2.4% M/M in August 2026, dropping faster than the preliminary reading of -1.7% and building on July’s 0.2% decline. This marks the second consecutive month of monthly output contraction and the sharpest downturn since January.

• CarMax (KMX) upgraded to Buy from Underperform at Bank America and raise tgt to $65 from $50 saying FTC enforcement of price transparency, combined with the company’s own actions, has made CarMax the most price-competitive it has been in years.
• Crocs (CROX) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays and raised tgt to $139 from $118 citing greater visibility into the company’s multi-year growth story for the upgrade.
• Penske Automotive (PAG) announces agreement to be taken private by Penske Corporation and Mitsui & Co. as shareholders to receive $212 per share in cash; enterprise value $16.30B; to hold 64% and Mitsui to hold 36% of company post-deal.
• Walmart (WMT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank with a $136 price target saying they see a more favorable setup for the shares into 2027 as the current inflationary environment should reinforce Walmart’s value proposition and drive accelerates market share gains.

• Rocket Lab (RKLB) said the inaugural launch of its new, larger Neutron rocket was delayed until next year. Rocket Lab had previously ​targeted Neutron’s inaugural flight for the fourth quarter of 2026. Neutron is a reusable medium-lift rocket central to ​Rocket Lab’s effort to compete for larger commercial satellite, civil-space and US national-security ⁠missions.
• TotalEnergies (TTE) said it expects Q3 profits to be driven by a near quadrupling in refining margins from a year ago and a sharp rise in liquefied natural gas income; sees reporting refining margin of $33.2 per barrel for the July-September quarter, up from $13.5 a barrel in the previous three months and almost four times the $8.4 per barrel it had posted a year ago, the company said in a trading update.

• PayPal (PYPL) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Bank America with a $53 price target as the firm sees a weak Q3 setup and argues that every transformation lever is a 2027+ story.
• Piper Sandler (PIPR) and advisory firm Perella Weinberg Partners (PWP) have abandoned talks for an all-stock merger, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The companies were unable to agree on financial and personnel matters, FT reported. Last month, the Wall Street Journal reported that Piper Sandler was in talks to buy Perella Weinberg, which had a market value of about $1.4 billion at the time.
• PNC bank (PNC) Q3 EPS $5.09 vs. est. $4.89; Q3 revs rose 11% y/y to $6.56B vs. est. $6.59B; Q3 net income rose 15% y/y to $2.1B; Q3 net interest income increased 15% y/y to $4.21B; Q3 non-interest expense fell -8% q/q to $3.75B; Q3 net loan charge-offs jumped 44% y/y to $257M.

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reported a 41.1% increase in Q3 revenue, beating estimates and forecasting Q4 sales above market expectations as demand for advanced chips used in AI remains strong; said Q3 revenue of $46.72B was above analysts’ expectations of $45.7B while gross margins were 66.4%, and operating margin reached 58.7%; guides Q4 revenue of $52.3B-$54.3B, above the analyst consensus of $50.48B.
• Ericsson (ERIC) reported a net profit of 10.74 billion Swedish kronor (€961 million) in the first nine months of 2026, representing a 45.9% decrease y/y; results reflect an extraordinary negative impact of 5.262 billion kronor (€471 million) due to restructuring costs; said net sales between January and September totaled 161.5 billion Swedish kronor (€14.455 billion), down -3.5% y/y.
• Comtech Telecom (CMTL) Q4 sales $66.2M vs. est. $111.7M; Q4 gross margins 40.6%, operating loss -$3.9M; and Q4 adj Ebitda $9.2M.
• Spotify (SPOT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at StoneX.
• The smartphone market suffered its worst decline on record in the September quarter, after rising memory costs pushed shipments down 22% with worse to come, according to market researcher IDC. The higher cost of storage over the past year, led by demand from AI industry orders, has hurt profitability across the mobile sector and forced companies to raise prices, cut back specifications and discard budget-focused models, IDC said